{\rtf1\mac\ansicpg10000\cocoartf100 {\fonttbl\f0\fswiss\fcharset77 Helvetica-Oblique;\f1\fswiss\fcharset77 Helvetica-BoldOblique;} {\colortbl;\red255\green255\blue255;} \paperw11900\paperh16840\margl1440\margr1440\vieww9000\viewh9000\viewkind0 \pard\tx560\tx1120\tx1680\tx2240\tx2800\tx3360\tx3920\tx4480\tx5040\tx5600\tx6160\tx6720\ql\qnatural \f0\i\fs36 \cf0 \ After Kyoto meeting towards post oil era\ \f1\b\fs24 \ Just some weeks after the UN Kioto meeting had ended in Buenos Aires, on\ December, the tsunami flowed onto the coastals of Indian ocean. The modern\ society could not foresee this to happen and when the earth quaqe happened\ only animals and some indigenious tribes could be sensitive enough to run\ away.\ But if the technosystem could not react on thatkind of unpredictable\ change, you could think that this system can react those things which can\ be foreseen. The UN Climate Change meeting in Buenos Aires showed that this is not the case. \f0\b0 \ \ \f1\b \ Official optimism with closed eyes \f0\b0 \ \ This meeting could not find ways to responce the challenges of the climate\ change nor the becoming shortage of fossil fuels. Instead of realistic\ facing the situation we heard official optimism by the leaders of the\ world and a promise of high level seminar in the future dealing with the\ issues.\ -We shall achieve the demands of Kyoto agreements easily in Germany, said\ \f1\b Mr. J\'9frgen Trittin \f0\b0 , Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature\ Conservation and Nuclear Safety in Germany.\ \ His point was that we should restrict the use of oil and coal in the level\ that the average temperature on the Earth does not increace more than two\ degrees, the assumed critical limit for the global climate balance.\ \ But when looking around the globalized war for oil we can ask are all\ remarcable reductions as impossible as to take a dobe out from the hand of\ narcoman. When the oil is more valuable than blood there is a reason the\ be sceptical for progress in global restriction of consuming oil.\ \f1\b \ Seventh generations rule \f0\b0 \ \ The justice solution could be found if we think the issue thoroughly from\ the viewpoint of future generations.\ \ -This meeting does not think as we do, said indigenious peoples\ representant, \f1\b Stanley Jones \f0\b0 from Alaska.\ -We have the seventh generation rule. We should foresee the results of our\ activities for the time of seven generations.\ \ Instead of seventh generation rule industrial countries seems to have\ choosen the one generation rule. Just burn the oil as fast as possible.\ The menthality also in Buenos Aires meeting was that the every restriction\ for the consumption is some kind of loss for economy and there was\ discussion can we afford these losses or not.\ \ But the restriction does not mean that the oil would not be used. It is\ not any losses but giving some changes also for future generations!\ \ Saving the oil and other fossiles for the needs of future generations\ would be juctice global politics which would at the same time give help for\ controlling the climate change and time for making the needed changes in\ social and technological patterns. \f1\b \ \ Genetic modification and nuclear power - false options for future \f0\b0 \ \ In this chrisis some industrial forces are lobbying genetic engineering\ and nuclear technology to be solutions for these complex problems.\ \ It is easy to see, that nuclear power cannot be included in the toolkit to\ prevent the climate change. In this unstable world of wars and terrorism\ nuclear technology is not a part of any solution, it is part of already\ existing problems. We should not forget that genetic engineering is also a\ technology suitable for mass destruction - with purpose or by accidend. On\ todays level of knowledge we are just learning to read the complex\ language in genoms and it should be clear that we have not right for make\ irreversible changes in the gene-ecology of living patterns. The history\ of foreign chemicals in ecosystems should keep in mind with transgenic\ organism also. We cannot continue solving the problems of past industrial\ development by taking new risks and causing new problems.\ \ \f1\b \ Cultural evolution in crossroad \f0\b0 \ \ Fossile fuels are the basis of our western industrial life.\ The western industrial production and consumption pattern, the whole\ society is based on the use of oil.\ \ Actually we everyone in industrialized countries get there for our use the\ energy which could be comparable about the work and energy more than fifty\ slaves in earlyer decades.\ Unfortunately the slaves who are now paying our wellfare are the future\ generations and the life sphere of the Earth. The inheritance we are\ giving to our children is going to be lot of problems and little of\ possibilies - the less possibilities the later the true change of this\ fossile based culture is started reformed.\ \ This oilbased industrial culture has been build now during 150 years and\ we call this era proudly "industrial revolution". We have now to make even\ more deeper industrial revolution during the next decades, when giving up\ the over usage of oil.\ \f1\b \ Time for desentralization \f0\b0 \ \ There is to happen cultural revolution from centralized prodution and\ consumption patterns (which need lot of oil for transportation ) to\ desentralized and localized structures. The mass production cannot compatite with local production when the prise of oil gets higher and higher.\ There has already begun in grass root level a new technological evolution\ and society building towards this alternative future.\ \f1\b \ Alternative ways to use oil \f0\b0 \ \ It is also too often thought that burning is the only way of use oil. The\ oil is the basic material of plastics and by plastics we can produce\ besides rubbish into refuse dumps, also many ecologically usefull\ materials. Solar panels for electry production and heating, greenhouse\ glasses, the wings for wind turbins, light material for vehicles etc are good examples for that. By this way we could use the oil for changing the\ energyproduction and consumption patterns and at the same time allow the\ fossile carbon to stay out of atmosphere, to be recycled in the components\ needed in these materials of eco-technologies. Byt this way we would not burn out the future possibilies but instead we would build them.\ \f1\b \ Biodiversity - the key for adabtation \f0\b0 \ \ The climate change is today reality with many new changes in climate\ dynamics. The storms, dry seasons or rainy times and extreme changes with\ temperatures are signs which can be seen around the globe.\ When I am writing this there is raining outside. Normally we have had the\ coldest periods with temperature level about 20-30 degrees below zero in\ this time of winter. However two years ago we had extraordinary cold\ winter. There has been similar extreme changes with water and wind also.\ Some year we have suffered long dry periods and some year we have had too\ much of rain. Storms have been making more and more damage from year to\ year. This climate change is likely to continue even if we could achieve\ the goals of Kioto agreement.\ \ In thiskind of change of conditions both agriculture and forestry are\ needing deep rethinking.\ The idea of big monocultures,perhaps even transgenic, is not possible in\ future agriculture and forestry. Ecosystems, man made or natural, can\ adabt by the best way if there exists lot of diversity in all levels.\ \ This simple lesson should be seriously and soon learned both in\ agriculture and forestry. We need diversity in all levels if we want to help ecosystems to adabt into this ongoing climate change.\ \f1\b \ Biodiversity - the key for food security \f0\b0 \ \ This change towards diversity has to happen also by the reasons of\ sustainable local economies and food security. There are good and many\ ways productible alternative land use possibilities than monocultures.\ Agroforestry with their solution with combining trees , berryes and crops and a anvanced ways of permacultural forest gardening practises. Instead of enormous transgenic soya plantations which ruin the agriculture in Argentina we should be developing this kind of systems everywhere.\ \ Also ecoforestry based on organic silvicultural models can make a reals\ change for more sustainable ecology and economy.\ \ And finally, we should not forget the importance of intact ecosystems\ which their diversity to be essential. During these ongoing decades of\ climate change we shall need all the diversity, all the species and\ biotops supporting the survival of the net of life and carbon balance of\ the Earth.\ \f1\b \ Global action plan for local survival \f0\b0 \ \ Today it should be clear for everyone that the Earth needs a action plan\ for this change, a strategy to face the need for alternative practical\ solutions for the ultimate usage of fossiles but also a strategy to face\ the needs to survive with this ongoing climate change.\ \ These waves of cultural tsunami are coming,climate is changing and oil is\ going to be end.\ \ There is no alternative but to build alternatives for this fossil based\ modern industrial culture. The future is for sustainable solutions.\ \ Hannu Hyv\'9anen\ \ The writer is organic farmer and forest owner, journalist and campaign\ coordinator in The Union of Ecoforestry in Finland.}